Nate Silver wrote the definitive story on Donald Trump and nobody knows it…
That’s right, America’s favorite statistician, the diviner of data, the man who makes sense out of chaos, analyzed the polls and found out that while Trump had the highest rating, his unfavorables were through the roof. In other words, only a small percentage of GOP voters favored him, uneducated on the issues to boot, and when the field consolidated, Trump would be history.
But unlike during the last election cycle, Nate Silver is no longer on the front page of the New York Times, and therefore his insights have no traction. In other words, the bloviating press that loves a horse race is going on about the success of Donald Trump when the truth is contrary to the hubbub.
It’s kind of like making a hit record that only plays on your local college radio station.
The old days of the internet are through.
The ones wherein greatness surfaced and we were all the better for it. Today, you’ve got to attach your track to the coattails of an entity with a large audience, otherwise you’re just pissing in the wind.
How did we get here, how did it come to this – the cacophony, the sheer plethora of information?
Furthermore, the Silver situation proves that the stuff with ink, that gets most attention, may not be the best.
Which is why, in the music business, we’ve got story after story about the flavor of the moment that does not resonate with you when you check it out.
So what do we know?
He with the greatest audience wins, irrelevant of veracity or quality.
The New York Times survives, Nate Silver is marginalized. If you’re going it alone, be prepared to enter the wilderness, and possibly stay there. Because concomitant with the footprint of the powerhouses is the inability to compete with them. Bing proved this, Google was good enough. If you’re not reinventing the wheel, stay out of the fracas.
Meanwhile, our nation is going to look different in the years to come.
Truth will out. Because a younger generation has grown up on facts, and they refuse to live in denial. It’s Baby Boomers who are blowhards, who believe if they just yell loud enough what they say will come true. But when numbers can be marshaled that contradict common wisdom, watch out.
This is the same battle over transparency that the Berklee Report stirred up. If you think the labels are gonna get away with voodoo royalty reports in the future, you’re probably still using a flip-phone. As the oldsters retire, the young ‘uns bring in new models.
So what we’ve learned is you’re better off playing with the big boys than going it alone.
So what we’ve learned is it’s not you. You’re right, the media industrial complex is frequently hyping crap, and that which doesn’t fit its paradigm, however great, is lost in the tsunami of information.
Nate Silver turned chaos into comprehension.
Read his report and you’ll see that Trump is a marginal player who can’t win. But few know this.
Nate Silver – “Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates”: http://53eig.ht/1gmbhHC
Dave Goldberg – “Re: Music strategy-confidential”: https://wikileaks.org/sony/emails/emailid/130395
“Google” is NOT good enough.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/could-google-tilt-a-close-election/2013/03/29/c8d7f4e6-9587-11e2-b6f0-a5150a247b6a_story.html
And again.
http://www.wired.com/2015/08/googles-search-algorithm-steal-presidency/
nice article lefsetz.
but the primaries are different than in 2012. for repugs a candidate in thepast
fell out because of usually money running out. Now with new laws a candidate can
get one big donor and ride thru the primaries for a longer period of time.
Like newt gingrich getting one old guy to give his campaign money long after
newt should have dropped out of the race.
So these repub candidates can stay in longer…and with so many of these
clowns you really could have no candidate get enough delegates to win the
nomination.
this will be enjoyable for dems. And with all the infighting among repubs
in congress and senate this next year will be a comedians jackpot and lots
of fun viewing while they watch their party split up.
Did you see the luntz focus group after the debates? wow!!!!!!!!
The two graphs in the Nate Silver link were very interesting.
Trump will get blown off by the Republicans who will, by hook or crook nominate Jeb Bush, and Hillary will deluge Sanders in dirty tricks like the “Black Lives Matter” until he quits, about April or May of 2016 … and Trump will mount a Ross Perot-style candidacy. Except he won’t quit, and the voters will say “F*ck You” to Hillary and Jeb, and give him a majority of the vote in November.
That’s a hilarious premise for an alternate history novel.
Though, on the other hand….hasn’t it already been done?
stream forty scven.
that’s pretty far fetched.
doubt it happens.
If Donald does go a third party he’ll probably get around 19% and Hillary wins.
Remember…Hillary starts out with almost 240 electoral votes.
Trump defies logic. Conservative women were attacking Megyn Kelly because they found out Trump’s insults were aimed at Rosie O’Donnell. Anyone who trashes Rosie is a hero to conservative women.
Kelly failed to tell the audience the context of Trump’s insults. It turns out that Trump’s comment about a woman looking pretty on her knees was from an episode of the Apprentice in which a female contestant recounted how she literally got on her knees to beg her fellow contestant for a favor. The context of Trump’s comment was that he wished he would have been there to see her beg.
As for Megyn Kelly bleeding “out of her eyes or wherever” comment. I couldn’t believe that multitude of women who didn’t care if he was referring to her vagina. The anger at Megyn Kelly has many of them asking whether Kelly’s disdain for Trump was related to her hormonal imbalance.