Jack Goes Confidential: Oscar Night – Tight Races, Fearless Predictions

rs_634x1024-131210124228-634.american-hustler-lawrence.ls.121013No wagering, please…
Unless of course you’re willing to lose your investment. Because let’s face it, my annual Oscar predictions have been less than accurate of late. I’ve been coming in at no higher than 75%, bt fearlessly I carry on. Year after year.
So here’s how I see the Academy handing out the golden-glazed statues this Sunday:
Each category is broken into TWO picks. The first is what I PERSONALLY would have chosen. The second, my prediction for what the Academy WILL choose.
Bear in mind that what we’ve got here is one of the tightest contests in years—especially in the Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories.
* BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
My choice: The minion madness of Despicable Me 2.
But the Academy will award Disney’s blockbuster Frozen instead.
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My choice, Julia Roberts for August: Osage County.
The Academy’s? A toss-up between Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years A Slave and Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle.
So who will pick up the Oscar? Lupita Nyong’o (after all, Ms. Lawrence won last year.)
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My choice—call me crazy but Jonah Hill for The Wolf Of Wall Street.
As for the Academy, NO contest. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club.
* BEST ACTRESS:
My choice: Cate Blanchett in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine.
The Academy’s choice? Ditto—Cate Blanchett’s for her enthralling performance in Blue Jasmine.
1Leonardo-DiCaprio-Wolf-of-Wall-St.-092412-600x450* BEST ACTOR:
WOW! Five great performances here. My fave, Leonardo DiCaprio as The Wolf Of Wall Street.
Who will the Academy honor? A lot of head scratching in this category, but when it’s all said and done, Matthew McConaughey will accept the Oscar for Dallas Buyers Club.
* BEST DIRECTOR:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. You can’t have a best picture without a best director.
Did the best picture direct ITSELF? Of course not.
But this could be another fluke year.
My choice for best director? Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity.
The Academy? They’ll most likely agree since Gravity propelled cinema into a new dimension.

* BEST PICTURE:
My personal choice, Martin Scorsese‘s The Wolf Of Wall Street.
But the Academy will instead be splitting hairs between 12 Years A Slave and Gravity.
Ask yourself, how in good conscience can they NOT award 12 Years A Slave?
And that’s why they WILL!
Remember the Oscars shine this Sunday on ABC with Ellen DeGeneres as ringmaster.
And depending on the outcome you’ll either hear from me again next week—or maybe not.
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9 Responses to Jack Goes Confidential: Oscar Night – Tight Races, Fearless Predictions

  1. chuck says:

    Politics as usual.

    The “Wolf” should take everrything. What a hoot.

  2. CG says:

    Jack knows his craft. Good calls Jack, I may even put down a bet or two based on your picks. A solid year for film, its getting better. Less Super Hero movies, smaller budgets with stories and character studies involved, on the right track. Now if online will stop letting us see the movies while theaters for free, that might help the box office.

  3. Jim says:

    Always so interesting to get other people’s takes on movies. Fascinating that I could love what others hate and vice versa. Hustle was hands down the best movie I saw this year. Really didn’t like “Wolf” nearly as much as others even though I’m a huge Leo fan. Visually, Gravity was the most amazing movie I have ever seen. Just spectacular.

    Off the subject a bit – If you haven’t been watching True Detective on HBO you have really been missing out. Can’t describe how insanely great Matthew McConaughey is in that series. As good as any big screen movie I’ve ever seen him in.

  4. PB says:

    Among the BP nominees, have only seen Gravity, Hustle, Captain Phillips and Wolf and while Phillips is an easy omission among those four, I’d have trouble choosing among the other three. All had their flaws, I think. Gravity was an amazing visual experience, but severly lacking in story and substance, so I just don’t see that it as BP. Wolf was by far the most entertaining of that bunch, but just way too lightweight (especially considering the subject matter) and silly for me to consider for top prize. So for me, that leaves Hustle almost by default as the entire cast was first rate and the direction was very good. I suppose a BP should be more than just extremely solid, but there have been much worse choices for that award over the years.

    Didn’t see 12 Years so I can’t speak to the politics of picking it as the winner beyond the incredibly worn out viewpoint of it being nothing more than yet another Hollywood Elite attempt to absolve their “white guilt”. Perhaps that’s why The Help, Precious or The Color Purple also won…oh wait, they didn’t. Well, it’s at least why Fruitvale Station and The Butler were nominated…oh wait, they weren’t. Well, however it turns out, 12 Years certainly won’t win based on it just being a good movie, will it? Maybe next year Hollywood can yet again piss off Downtrodden White Guy with another Holocaust movie or perhaps a Brokeback Mountain sequel. I can’t wait.

    • Jamie Foxx says:

      Loved your post and I love “killing white people” in Django Unchained, an academy award winning movie that really tells it like it is to the uninformed.

  5. kinder says:

    the best movie I saw this year wasn’t nominated for anything.
    if you get a chance, “the way way back” is brilliant.

    the others were good too, but so hollywood.

    • Jim says:

      +1, Kinder. Fabulous!

    • StillAtMyMoms says:

      Ditto, Kinder. A travesty that the Academy always seems to overlook other worthy pictures outside of award season.

    • PB says:

      I do agree that this was a good flick. Written, directed and acted in by the team of Jim Rash & Nat Faxon who won a Best Screenplay Oscar for last year’s The Descendants. Steve Carrell was a real dick btw.

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