And I have no idea who is going to win, so here’s my best analysis of how Mitt Romney becomes the 45th President of the United States of America.
He starts with a 191 electoral votes towards the 270 needed to win- per the RealClearPolitics projections. The President has 201 “in the bag,” so to speak.
That leaves 146 electoral votes up for grabs from the following States: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).
Of those final 11 States, I’m confident that Romney takes North Carolina, Virginia and the Jews and Cubans are going to drag him across the finish line in Florida.
That’s another 57 electoral votes for Romney, for a total of 248. The President is going to take Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. So another 32 to the President, for a total of 233.
That leaves five States and 69 Electoral Votes left to fight over.
Colorado: Now has more registered Republicans than Democrats, giving the early voting edge to the Republicans. The wild card being the Marijuana Legalization initiative, where the President’s broken promises towards calling the war off on medical marijuana will decimate his voters amongst the “Stoner Class” which is a huge voting block in Colorado.
These votes will probably go to Gary Johnson, effectively costing Obama the State and its 9 Electoral Votes.
Iowa: This is where this mess begins and it plays a part in the end. There’s a lot of “buyer’s remorse” in a State that the President won comfortably in 2008. For what its worth, all my friends in Iowa are gonna vote for Obama again. Being around so much corn must make you liberal. Combined with the ethanol vote, Obama wins these six EV’s.
New Hampshire: Will the “Live Free or Die” State vote for the President who makes W look like a piker where infringing civil liberties are concerned? I don’t think so. Four more EV’s for Romney.
Pennsylvania: Normally a reliable Democrat State, a Republican hasn’t won there since “George the Elder” in ’88. The wild card here is Republican Governor Tom Corbett, who won by 55-45 in the 2010 election and only lost four counties.
He knows how to beat Democrats, enjoys a lot of popularity and Romney inherits his ground game. The pro-coal western part of the State should turn out in droves for Romney and he
should do well in the Philly suburbs. Romney 50.1 to 49.9 – 20 more
EV’s for the Governor.
Ohio: The ads Obama’s been running against Romney about the auto bailout have been very effective. The President has also been campaigning there like his life depends on it, and he’s right.
Early voting for Democrats is down and Republican numbers are up. I’m really grabbing
at straws here and the State is a hotbed of voter fraud on all sides, but I’m going to give the edge to the President, 50.1 to 49.9, and he wins
its 18 EV’s.
Final: Romney 281- Obama 257