When it comes to insecurity, Hollywood usually takes the cake…
Huge production and marketing costs have the studios relying ever more on so-called "tracking services" that forecast what films might open to in terms of ticket sales on specific debut weekends, as well as attempting to predict their "all in" boxoffice take.
With millions of dollars at stake and ongoing ad-pub repositioning right up to the film’s release date, Hollywood has spawned a sizeable sideline industry that delivers sophisticated statistical advance information that once was the domain of fortune tellers.
The 18 week long summer movie period beginning nowadays with the first weekend of May and running through Labor Day can easily make or break a studio’s fortunes.
Advance tracking of a film’s awareness and boxoffice potential also acts as an insurance policy for tinseltown’s movers and shakers. And if nothing else, may just save their butts from second guessing corporate brass.
Here’s how just one of the industry’s more reliable prognosticators projects this summer’s top achievers at north American boxoffices—by ticket $ales, of course.
The cream of the crop, summer blockbusters expected to produce opening weekend grosses of $50 million or more:
# 1—THE DARK KNIGHT RISES—Christian Bale/Joseph Gordon-Levitt opens July 20th. Projected opening weekend gross: $175 million.
# 2—MARVEL’s THE AVENGERS—Robert Downey, Jr./Chris Evans opens May 4. Projected opening weekend gross: $165 million.
# 3—THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN—Andrew Garfield/Emma Stone opens July 3. Projected opening weekend gross: $110 million.
# 4—MEN IN BLACK 3—Will Smith/Tommy Lee Jones opens May 25. Projected opening weekend gross: $80 million.
# 5–-BATTLESHIP—Liam Neeson/Taylor Kitsch opens May 18. Projected opening weekend gross: $75 million.
# 6—BRAVE—Pixar’s latest opens June 27. Projected opening weekend gross: $67 million.
# 7—SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN—Kristen Stewart/Chris Hemsworth opens June 1. Projected opening weekend gross: $65 million.
# 8—G.I. JOE RETALIATION—Channing Tatum/Dwayne Johnson opens June 29. Projected opening weekend gross: $55 million.
# 9—NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH—Ben Stiller/Vince Vaughn/ Jonah Hill opens July 27. Projected opening weekend gross: $52 million.
# 10 (tie)—MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’s MOST WANTED—Ben Stiller/Chris Rock opens June 8. Projected opening weekend gross: $50 million.
# 10 (tie)—THE BOURNE LEGACY-–Jeremy Renner/Rachel Weisz (…but no Matt Damon) opens August 3. Projected opening weekend gross: $50 million.
Also hit bound are the summer movies projected for opening weekends of between $30 to $49 million:
# 11 (tie)—ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT—Ray Romano/Denis Leary opens July 13. Projected opening weekend gross: $45 million.
# 11 (tie)—THE EXPENDABLES 2-–Sly Stallone/Liam Hemsworth opens August 17. Projected opening weekend gross: $45 million.
HH
# 12—DARK SHADOWS—Johnny Depp/Michelle Pfeiffer opens May 11. Projected opening weekend gross: $40 million.
# 13 (tie)—PROMETHEUS—Michael Fassbender/Charlize Theron opens June 9. Projected opening weekend gross: $38 million.
# 13 (tie)—ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER—Benjamin Walker/Dominic Cooper opens June 22. Projected opening weekend gross: $38 million.
# 14—TOTAL RECALL—Colin Farrell/Kate Beckinsale opens August 3. Projected opening weekend gross: $34 million.
How close will these projected opening boxoffice numbers come to actual ticket sales? No one knows–YET!
But we’ll all be a heck of a lot smarter come Labor Day.
MiB 3
Those prognosticators should know alot better than me, but I can’t help thinking that the new Men In Black is going to be a failure of epic proportions that doesn’t even do half that projected $80 mil on opening weekend. I guess the longer Memorial Day weekend will help, but jeezuz that movie looks all kinds of awful and doesn’t anybody give a shit about that franchise or even Will Smith anymore.?
pider-man
gonna tank, Uhmerica is getting tired of the relentless reboots within only a few years time.
DARK SHADOWS
I sort of think this movie just might be the sleeper of the summer. Depp can pull this off and I really do think the movie will pull from many age groups.
incredible..could not miss the
great photo of stevie nicks…favorite of all time…saw her in kc with rod steward and back in
1980….
to those who are concerned
doc g is doing good…in assisted living (i guess thats what they call it)…i’m sure he’ll be back up soon..
Not Sure About
Dark Shadows. First off, even though I really like Depp, I pretty much hate all the collaborations (outside of Ed Wood) with Burton. Seems as though they try way too hard to be out there or quirky/weird and those films just don’t resonate with me. Judging by the previews that I’ve seen, this Dark Shadows effort seems to be the same way. What was an interesting gothic/horror (albeit cheesy) soap opera that I enjoyed after school as a youth, has seemingly been turned into a Beetlejuice-like, absurdist comedy and from an appearannce standpoint anyway, Depp’s Barnabas Collins just looks like an extension of all his other kabuki-esque Burton characters from Edward Scissorhands to Willy Wonka to The Mad Hatter.
Johnny, do us all a favor and please step away from the overrated Burton before he completely drags you down into his twisted fantasy world, as we’re not exactly talking Ford/Wayne or Scorcese/DeNiro here in terms of great director/actor combos.
Ah,
if only they could bring back the magic of Ed Wood to another movie. Alas, Burton is all tapped out it seems.
Hey PG….
….thanks for the comment but as much as it may shock you, Tim Burton’s “DARK SHADOWS” is tracking extremely well!
So much so that Paramount has just shifted Sacha Barron Cohen’s “THE DICTATOR” from its competing opening date of May 11—UP to the following Wednesday, May 16th.
In other words they didn’t want to go head-on against Warner Brothers’ comedic Johnny Depp vehicle.
That ought to tell you something.
Oooops
Meant to say BACK to May 16th.
Ugh,
the day when Hollyweird started to change endings based on test screenings is the day it died.
Focus groups and test screening can kiss my ass, put a good product out and stand by it.
Yeah
I can’t begin to predict the typical moviegoers appetites. Obviously, from a financial standpoint, Burton/Depp must have some cachet as they continue to make movies together (I think Alice also did real well). And vampires in any format seem to be the hottest currency in Hollywood right now so they have that going for them. I was strictly speaking from a personal viewpoint as I’ve never really understood all the love for Burton’s work as he seems to just make the same visually-overloaded but devoid of any heart or soul film again and again and again. Is he even capable of making a basic story, grounded in reality film?
Do like some of the casting (Chloe Grace Moretz, Eva Green, Jackie Earle Haley and Alice Cooper?!) and the cameo by the original Barnabas (Jonathan Frid) is a nice touch but like his last several films, I’ll avoid this one in the theatre and just wait for it to show up on cable.