Glazer: Return of the Humble Scribe; Handicapping the Chiefs Game by Game

As the NFL strike comes to an end, we can now look closely at the Chiefs’ chances in 2011…

Answer: Not Much.

Why? Unless the team’s draft picks are off the chart – especially at wide receiver – the offense could be worse this season. Quarterback Matt "The Franchise" Cassel has got to be much more effective. And that’s hard to do with just one solid back and maybe one wide out in Dwayne Bowe.

Maybe this will all get better. I do think the Chiefs defense will improve, mostly due to experience.And  PS, we also have a new offensive coordinator, so who knows on that one?

So while the team may improve overall, the Chiefs schedule is a bitch. Uphill to say the least.

Before we go game to game, I also want to mention as I did last season, that I am not a Thomas Jones fan. He faded at the end of the year and was not able to gain the short yardage when we needed it. And the Chiefs do not yet have a power back. Without that player we’re in big trouble, regardless of what Jamaal Charles does.

Okay, here we go:

Game One: Chiefs vs. Bills at Home: Chiefs win,

Game Two Chiefs vs. Lions on road: Lions win. (They may make playoffs as the most improved NFL team).

Game Three: Chiefs vs. Chargers at Home: Chiefs win. (Shaky on this pick)

Game Four: Chiefs vs. Vikes on the road: Vikes win. (This could go either way Chiefs still haven’t learned the road yet)

Game Five: Chiefs Vs. Colts at Home:Colts win. (We never beat them).

Game Six: Chiefs vs. Raiders at Home: Chiefs win. (Again a shaky pick Raiders could be division champs and killed us at the end of last season here)

Game Seven: Chiefs Vs. Chargers road: Chargers win.

Game Eight: Chiefs vs. Miami at Home: Chiefs win. (Not an easy one)

Game Nine: Chiefs vs. Denver on the road: Denver wins.

Game 10: Chiefs vs. New England at Home: Pats win.

Game 11: Chiefs vs. Steelers on the road: Steelers win.

Game 12: Chiefs vs. Bears at home: Chiefs win in upset

Game 13: Chiefs vs. Jets on road: Jets win

Game 14: Chiefs vs. Green Bay at home: Packers win.

Game 15:  Chiefs vs. Oakland on the road: Oakland wins

Game 16: Chiefs vs. Denver at Home: Chiefs win.

There you have it!

This would make the Chiefs 6 and 10 for the season.

Let’s argue I am wrong on maybe two games. So they are 8-8. This could happen with injuries, upsets, weather – it happens.

You look at this season’s ending run – HOLY COW – both Super Bowl teams and the runners up!

If Todd Haley gets his team to win 8 games this year he’s done a nice job. If he does better, he’ll be in line for Coach of the Year. In Vegas the over-under on the Chiefs season is 8 1/2. That means they need to win 9 games for you to win the bet on the over/under games for season.

I just showed you the seasons games. Unless there is some real improvement I feel 6-10 or 7-9 is the best they can hope for.

So I love this Vegas bet: CHIEFS UNDER 8 1/2 WINS.

That said I hope they prove me wrong.

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29 Responses to Glazer: Return of the Humble Scribe; Handicapping the Chiefs Game by Game

  1. KU forever says:

    Agreed Glazer
    The Chiefs are an OK team thus far, nothing special. Their big guns faded mid season or so. Only Charles was a big deal as well as Eric Berry. Yeah 6,7 wins, 8 tops. Rough season ahead.

  2. harley says:

    Glaze….little early to make a prediction
    leave it up to me to make the most accurate and concise prognostications about sports.
    You have no experience nor any knowledge of whats hapening inside the team or the nfl.
    come on….i will make my accurate assessment of the team and their season after the
    pre season.
    You don’t even know who’s going to make the team…the trades….the changes….the
    new coaches…the new lineups…new receivers and how they play.
    This is worst than a blind date. You know nothing about the structure of the team
    so lets just say this is your pre pre pre season forecast which has proven wrong in the
    past.
    Lets see what develops in the pre season/training camp period because you have no
    idea what teams are going to do…what the opposing team will do….and to be honest
    you need more time to adequately figure out where this team will be.

  3. theKCeye says:

    huh
    “As the NFL strike comes to an end…” ….Strike? What strike? Owners strike maybe…

  4. Tonya says:

    “”As the NFL strike comes to an end…”

    Epic fail there Glazer.

    The whole post was an epic fail. Hearne better get a real sportguy in here to write.

  5. chuck says:

    Harley is right, it is way too early to pick, but…
    It is still fun. And if you guess right THIS early, shit, you must be Sam “Ace” Rothstein.

    1) Chiefs beat Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, really? Ryan Fitzpatrick…

    2) Lions, Chiefs lose if Stafford is healthy.

    3) Chiefs beat Chargers at Home (Chargers win the division, but not this game.)

    4) Vikings have NO QB. NONE. Chiefs win, they hld A P to 110 Yards, and their front 4 is not what it was. Jared Allen is done, the Williams bros should be the Williams sisters.

    5) Colts here. Surprise, we kill these guys. Peyton is starting to slow down, and the team is old. No kidding, we work these guys for the first time in a long time.

    6) Chiefs beat the Raiders at home. They are indeed much improved, so what, we beat them at home.

    7) Cheifs at Chargers-they kill us, we mail it in.

    8) Chiefs vs Miami at home, we pound ’em. They are still not sure who will take snaps. Shit they tried to trade their QB in the off season. Williams, and ALL the running backs are shot.

    9) We beat Denver on the road. Denver might win 3 fuckin games. they are bad, going to a 4 3, no players except elvis, and who knows if he is alright. We kill ’em.

    10) Pats kill us at home.

    11) Steelers kill us on the road.

    12) We eat Cutler’s lunch. 4 interceptions. Urlacher shoule bring a fuckin lantern to the game and look for an honest man. He has lost 4 steps. We will avoid Briggs. Bears are overrated.

    13) Jets beat us on the road.

    14) Greenbay wins if they have NOT clinched the division. If they have, WE WIN.

    15) Oakland pounds us on the road.

    16) The Cheifs send their wives and girlfriends out on the field, they beat the donkey piss outta what ever Denver has left.

    9 wins will not do it, we miss the wild card and San Diego wins the division.

  6. chuck says:

    In order for the Chiefs to go to the playoffs,
    we need to pull hard for GREENBAY all year!! The sooner they clinch, the better off we are. IF they come to town needing a victory in the 14th week, we could issue FN 5.7s to all the players, and still lose by 21.

    New Orleans will be playing Greenbay for the NFC. Mark Ingram is a really big deal, they stole that guy, he woulda gone 1st round 1st pick in any draft from 85 to 2007. The NFL is a wet by every rain, blown by every wind copy cat league. Right now, it is so very comme il faut to undervalue running bakcs. Ingram will give Breese another 3/4s of a second in the pocket. Thats a week to you and me. New Orleans will right there at the end with Green Bay, and one of those two will win the Superbowl.

    JMO, based on no QB or major skill player injuries, as always.

  7. chuck says:

    Think about this…
    Clay fuckin Mathews, SAT ON THE bench at USC. He didn’t start. Those guys were good!!

  8. Superfreq says:

    Half of that schedule is incorrect
    You list 9 games at home and 7 on the road, here is the listing from the Chiefs website http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Chiefs-2011-Schedule-Set/b37f5ad0-abe1-4484-b9e6-47793f56148a
    Game 3 vs SD in SD
    Game 4 vs Minn in KC
    Game 5 vs Indy in Indy
    Game 6 vs Oak in Oak
    Game 7 vs SD is in KC for Halloween
    Game 9 is Den in KC
    Game 10 is NE in NE
    Game 11 is Pitt in KC on Sunday night
    Game 12 vs Chi in Chi
    Game 15 is Oak in KC
    Game 16 is Den in Denv

    Still a tough schedule.

  9. Craig Glazer says:

    Which Game was Wrong?
    I will check, maybe I inverted one game, sorry, but no its not HALF WRONG, that was online. Sorry if I got one wrong, but those are who they play in that order, sure home or away matters. Again, Chiefs will be doing well to win 8. Regardless, major league tough schedule

  10. CMac says:

    Any time the schedule looks easy or hard you just have to remember that the rest of the division plays nearly the same teams as the Chiefs do. 9 wins could win this division. 8 wins will be a good year for this team.

  11. Cowboy says:

    Harley Glazer is Pretty Close
    Harley why should I listen to you. Your post season was poor. It was the Glazer who got it right. He did think the Chiefs would not do well last year early on, I agree. But they ended weak. I think the Chiefs will be lucky to win more then 7.

  12. Bad Ass Jew, Berkowitz says:

    I’ll Take A Bet
    Chiefs under 8 1/2 where do I sign up? Legally? Chiefs with that group of good teams? I think the Chiefs finish behind Chargers,Oakland at third. I’m thinking like 6 wins maybe 7. Sure some breaks could put them at 8 maybe more if the offense is better. Our defense is out there way too long. Thats why they break down late. No offense. By the end of last season the Chiefs had the NFL’s almost worst offense, it was all Charles. He proved he could not carry a team with the beatings Oakland and Baltimore, as well as Chargers gave us. We were almost a joke by seasons end, A JOKE. Worst team in the play offs by far. BY FAR.

  13. Doormat says:

    Chiefs Phony as A 3 dollar Bill
    Had they played a real scheduale last season, please they would have won maybe 6 or 7 tops. They had a C + defense and a D offense, in other words they continued to stink, as phony a 10-6 as you will ever see. I do think they might become decent next season not now. Need a real quarterback and power back, some receivers and D lineman. Another long season ahead.

  14. legal Eagle says:

    You Are Wrong
    Chiefs will win the West again. They will have the best defense in the AFC. Watch.

  15. Kerouac says:

    FINALLY WAS ABLE ANSWER THAT ╥ MATH QUESTION
    which allowed me to post (solving ‘pi’ was almost as tedious as watching kcindy in 2010… and will be same 2011.]

    “Chiefs 6 and 10 for the season.”

    – agreed; they’ll pick off 6 passes and register 10 sacks on defense – tops…

    “Let’s argue I am wrong”

    – you’ll get no argument from me… you are.

    “on maybe two games”

    – per NFL kickoff time slots, weekly…

    “So”

    – (fingers wiggling from ears, tongue stuck out) “phbLLLTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!! ”

    “they are 8-8.”


    Q: which opponents kcinderella’s 2011 schedule are going to forfeit those first 8 games?

    A: None… kcindy: 5 wins, 11 losses…

    “This could happen with injuries, upsets, weather – it happens.”

    – that was their means/excuse(s) ‘last’ season: weather (the lucky monsoon vs SD & Vincent Jackson’s suspension), injury (CLEV’s starting QB missing the game) upsets (dumb luck augmented ‘Providence’ vs BUFF)…kcindy was as much a 6-10 team as an 10-6 – that was driven home forcefully via their southern sphincter post season via RAVEN DOMINATION… O-U-C-H!

    Pricele$$

    : )

  16. Matilda Marsh says:

    Oh boys, I love it when you fight
    First, Harley is not apples and apples–he wants to be right by guessing much later, with much more information. Well, DUH; that’s easy. The tough call is Craig calling his picks NOW. So, Harley–pick now. Hell, two days ago, you begged Craig to write about the Chiefs instead of world peace and how great KC is. He does and then you bitch. If you were a woman, Harley…you’d be one lonely broad.

    Next, Chuck:
    I adore you. Who else in town can work “comme il faut” into a post, let alone a football post, let alone being from Eastern Jack, and let alone know what it means. You must have been the only scholar in your class. Or schtupping your French teacher. Or…both.
    You are priceless, Chuck.

    And yes, Kerouac, let’s just count our blessings that the math test to post does NOT require one to solve for pi.

  17. chuck says:

    🙂
    .

  18. Rainbow Man says:

    Archiving This
    I am saving this to flip a lot of crap later. The Chiefs are a ten win team.. and they will be better this year. They will beat the Colts and the Pats and they will be the TALK of the NFL. They won’t lose at home (Maybe 1). I am not worried about our offense. If the defense gels… we will be in The Playoffs again.

  19. Downtown davey says:

    Hope You Are Right Rainbow
    Now that makes me feel better. Really.

  20. Boomer says:

    Not Me
    I’d like to buy in, but I have seen nothing to prove anything Rainbow man wrote. I saw the last five games last year. UGLY. Cassel looked bad, the running game was overall gone, defense wore down. All but one game, Rams, was awful. I kinda agree with Glazer by seasons end the Chiefs were far from a playoff team, below average. All they were building during the first half of the year was not on the field anymore except Charles and a few defense guys. But I want Rainbow man to be on it so we can bash Glazer later for hating on the Chiefs.

  21. George Wilson says:

    Lots Wrong, Craig
    According to the schedule posted on the NFL Chief’s site, these are the games you have incorrectly identified as home/road. Game 3 (San Diego) is a road game. Game 4 (Minnesota) is a home game. Game 5 (Indianapolis) is a road game. We go to Oakland for game 6. San Diego is in KC for game 7 as is Denver for game 9. The Chiefs go to New England and Pittsburgh comes to KC. We play in Chicago and Oakland comes here in Week 15. And we end the season in Denver.

    I don’t want to be too negative, but I think you can see where readers might not feel your sports knowledge is that credible when you don’t know where the games are being played. As I understand it, you have some working knowledge of how NFL betting goes. Home field is worth roughly three points, so mistaking which is the home team is a swing of six points. Given that a large percentage of all NFL games are decided by one touchdown or less, I think you can understand that when predicting the outcomes of games, getting the home team correct is essential for credibility.

    http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=KC

  22. George Wilson says:

    Follow Up Thought
    I like the site and would prefer to have any criticism I might make be constructive. So, since Craig takes a lot of grief about his sports posts, one thing I think would be interesting is this Fall to have him make NFL picks against the spread every week. Maybe pick five games each week and predict the winners outright and against the spread the Friday before the game. Even better, challenge some of the know it all posters (me included) to post their picks on the same games. It certainly would be new content and I think it might drive some readership. “Put up or shut up” promotions pitting writer against his readers are always a lot fun.

  23. harley says:

    glaze….please stop!
    getting the main part of the chiefs schedule wrong is bad.

  24. Craig Glazer says:

    Online Lineup Correct home and away was wrong
    I am sorry about that, first off, ALL THOSE GAMES ARE CORRECT AND IN ORDER, some were away not home as George Wilson pointed out. I looked on the sched. online, if you look it is WHITE FOR HOME AND RED FOR AWAY, however it switched to vs at home and @ for away, colors alternated…so it was confussing to say the least. So George is correct some of the games were home and I said away due to what I saw online. My fault. BUT THE GAMES ARE IN THAT ORDER AGAINST THOSE TEAMS…SO given that, I still see the season as the way I said it, Chiefs win 6-8 games. Regardless. This was a misread and due to the way it was printed White home Red away and then changing back and forth using the same color combination. My bad sorry. An honest error.

  25. Cowboy says:

    Chiefs VS. was correct
    I see what he saw. It was hard to follow online. The games were correct and in order. Some were home and he wrote away. That was incorrect. However his picks don’t change much, anyways. But of course the Chiefs are better at home. He might have reversed a win or two for a lose and visa versa, still they look to be a team that may only win 6,7,8 games. 9 would be very good. We just have to see if this team is alot better than last years. I agree with one comment that felt the Chiefs might have a strong defense which would change things. If they do, and thats a big if, they might be a contender. Based on last year thats not the case. We will see.

  26. Tracy says:

    So, fix the calendar and REPOST YOUR COLUMN, Craig!
    Hearne just reposted the same Westport harangue with more of the lawyer’s quotes.
    So–there is legal precedent, ha!

    Fix your mistakes, redo your predictions, and repost it.
    I want to forward this to my brothers, but it’s too messed up.
    Fix it.
    the beauty of this blog/website is it’s not like the Star, where for SOME writers, 3 strikes and you are out, to admit a mistake can get you fired.

    And I agree with whoever, Harley needs to put up or shut up. You can’t wait till the post-season is over to make a prediction, if you’re going to tinkle on Craig then give us your EARLY predictions just like he did. Man up, Harley! Or if you ever catch up to Craig at Woodside, his bullpen will just hold your head under water. Then you’d die. And oh brother, imagine how mean Hearne will be to you at your funeral…

  27. Craig Glazer says:

    Correct home and away
    here is the corrected list of home and away:
    Home Chiefs vs. Bills win
    Road Chiefs vs. Lions lose
    Road Chiefs vs. Chargers lose
    Home Chiefs vs. Vikes win
    Road Chiefs vs. Colts lose
    Road Chiefs vs. Raiders lose
    Home Chiefs vs. Chargers win
    Home Chiefs vs. Miami win
    Home Chiefs vs. Denver win
    Road Chiefs vs. New England lose
    Home Chiefs vs. Steelers lose
    Road Chiefs vs. Bears lose
    Road Chiefs vs. Jets lose
    Home Chiefs vs. Pakcers lose
    Home Chiefs vs. Raiders win
    Road Chiefs vs. Denver win

    Based on this revised home vs. away I now have the Chiefs at 7-9 a one game improvement….again upsets happen on both ends they may win a couple on the road and lose one or two at home they should win….again I see them with 6,7,8 wins…I’ll stick to that and hope I am wrong and they do better.

  28. Bad Ass Jew, Berkowitz says:

    Hope You Are Wrong
    Glazer like a few fellow commentors have written, no matter how you twist this seasons situation, its gonna take a much improved Chiefs team to muster up more than 8 wins, much improved. Don’t see that happening.

  29. Cliffy says:

    (sigh)

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